Gaussian process emulation to improve efficiency of computationally intensive multidisease models: a practical tutorial with adaptable R code.

BACKGROUND: The rapidly growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has expanded the number of multidisease models predicting future care needs and health system priorities. Usefulness of these models depends on their ability to replicate real-life data and be readily understood and applied by public health decision-makers; yet existing simulation models of HIV comorbidities are computationally expensive and require large numbers of parameters and long run times, which hinders their utility in resource-constrained settings. METHODS: We present a novel, user-friendly emulator that can efficiently approximate complex simulators of long-term HIV and NCD outcomes in Africa. We describe how to implement the emulator via a tutorial based on publicly available data from Kenya. Emulator parameters relating to incidence and prevalence of HIV, hypertension and depression were derived from our own agent-based simulation model and other published literature. Gaussian processes were used to fit the emulator to simulator estimates, assuming presence of noise for design points. Bayesian posterior predictive checks and leave-one-out cross validation confirmed the emulator's descriptive accuracy. RESULTS: In this example, our emulator resulted in a 13-fold (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 8-22) improvement in computing time compared to that of more complex chronic disease simulation models. One emulator run took 3.00 seconds (95% CI: 1.65-5.28) on a 64-bit operating system laptop with 8.00 gigabytes (GB) of Random Access Memory (RAM), compared to > 11 hours for 1000 simulator runs on a high-performance computing cluster with 1500 GBs of RAM. Pareto k estimates were < 0.70 for all emulations, which demonstrates sufficient predictive accuracy of the emulator. CONCLUSIONS: The emulator presented in this tutorial offers a practical and flexible modelling tool that can help inform health policy-making in countries with a generalized HIV epidemic and growing NCD burden. Future emulator applications could be used to forecast the changing burden of HIV, hypertension and depression over an extended (> 10 year) period, estimate longer-term prevalence of other co-occurring conditions (e.g., postpartum depression among women living with HIV), and project the impact of nationally-prioritized interventions such as national health insurance schemes and differentiated care models.

Enabling Adherence to Treatment (EAT): a pilot study of a combination intervention to improve HIV treatment outcomes among street-connected individuals in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Street-connected individuals (SCI) in Kenya experience barriers to accessing HIV care. This pilot study provides proof-of-concept for Enabling Adherence to Treatment (EAT), a combination intervention providing modified directly observed therapy (mDOT), daily meals, and peer navigation services to SCI living with HIV or requiring therapy for other conditions (e.g. tuberculosis). The goal of the EAT intervention was to improve engagement in HIV care and viral suppression among SCI living with HIV in an urban setting in Kenya. METHODS: This pilot study used a single group, pre/post-test design, and enrolled a convenience sample of self-identified SCI of any age. Participants were able to access free hot meals, peer navigation services, and mDOT 6 days per week. We carried out descriptive statistics to characterize participants' engagement in EAT and HIV treatment outcomes. We used McNemar's chi-square test to calculate unadjusted differences in HIV outcomes pre- and post-intervention among participants enrolled in HIV care prior to EAT. We compared unadjusted time to initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and first episode of viral load (VL) suppression among participants enrolled in HIV care prior to EAT vs. concurrently with EAT using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05. We calculated total, fixed, and variable costs of the intervention. RESULTS: Between July 2018 and February 2020, EAT enrolled 87 participants: 46 (53%) female and 75 (86%) living with HIV. At baseline, 60 out of 75 participants living with HIV (80%) had previously enrolled in HIV care. Out of 60, 56 (93%) had initiated ART, 44 (73%) were active in care, and 25 (42%) were virally suppressed (VL < 1000 copies/mL) at their last VL measure in the 19 months before EAT. After 19 months of follow-up, all 75 participants living with HIV had enrolled in HIV care and initiated ART, 65 (87%) were active in care, and 44 (59%) were virally suppressed at their last VL measure. Among the participants who were enrolled in HIV care before EAT, there was a significant increase in the proportion who were active in HIV care and virally suppressed at their last VL measure during EAT enrollment compared to before EAT enrollment. Participants who enrolled in HIV care concurrently with EAT had a significantly shorter time to initiation of ART and first episode of viral suppression compared to participants who enrolled in HIV care prior to EAT. The total cost of the intervention over 19 months was USD $57,448.64. Fixed costs were USD $3623.04 and variable costs were USD $63.75/month/participant. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study provided proof of concept that EAT, a combination intervention providing mDOT, food, and peer navigation services, was feasible to implement and may support engagement in HIV care and achievement of viral suppression among SCI living with HIV in an urban setting in Kenya. Future work should focus on controlled trials of EAT, assessments of feasibility in other contexts, and cost-effectiveness studies.

Identifying patient preferences for diabetes care: A protocol for implementing a discrete choice experiment in Samoa.

In Samoa, adult Type 2 diabetes prevalence has increased within the past 30 years. Patient preferences for care are factors known to influence treatment adherence and are associated with reduced disease progression and severity. However, patient preferences for diabetes care, generally, are understudied, and other patient-centered factors such as willingness-to-pay (WTP) for diabetes treatment have never been explored in this setting. Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are useful tools to elicit preferences and WTP for healthcare. DCEs present patients with hypothetical scenarios composed of a series of multi-alternative choice profiles made up of attributes and levels. Patients choose a profile based on which attributes and levels may be preferable for them, thereby quantifying and identifying locally relevant patient-centered preferences. This paper presents the protocol for the design, piloting, and implementation of a DCE identifying patient preferences for diabetes care, in Samoa. Using an exploratory sequential mixed methods design, formative data from a literature review and semi-structured interviews with n = 20 Samoan adults living with Type 2 diabetes was used to design a Best-Best DCE instrument. Experimental design procedures were used to reduce the number of choice-sets and balance the instrument. Following pilot testing, the DCE is being administered to n = 450 Samoan adults living with diabetes, along with associated questionnaires, and anthropometrics. Subsequently, we will also be assessing longitudinally how preferences for care change over time. Data will be analyzed using progressive mixed Rank Order Logit models. The results will identify which diabetes care attributes are important to patients (p < 0.05), examine associations between participant characteristics and preference, illuminate the trade-offs participants are willing to make, and the probability of uptake, and WTP for specific attributes and levels. The results from this study will provide integral data useful for designing and adapting efficacious diabetes intervention and treatment approaches in this setting.

Barriers and facilitators to scaling up access to HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among key populations: A qualitative study of the incentive-based PrEP Seguro program in Mexico.

Introduction: Daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly safe and effective for HIV prevention, yet barriers to PrEP access and adherence persist among key populations. In Mexico, incentive-based pilot programs have been effective in improving PrEP adherence among male sex workers. Understanding the experiences of providers and program implementers is critical to integrating PrEP adherence programs as part of standard care in Mexico and similar settings. Methods: We conducted 17 in-depth informational interviews with care providers and staff responsible for administering PrEP to key populations (men who have sex with men, male sex workers, transgender women) in Mexico City. Interviews explored successes and challenges surrounding current PrEP implementation, as well as adaptations that could facilitate national scale-up of PrEP programs in Mexico. Informant transcripts were analyzed using a hybrid inductive-deductive thematic analysis approach utilizing CFIR constructs for the initial codebook while allowing for inductive findings. Results: Three key themes emerged from informant interviews as important for promoting PrEP programs in Mexico: 1) increasing individual PrEP access, 2) strengthening quality of care, and 3) improving organizational and structural support. Conclusions: PrEP in Mexico is currently only available in a few clinics with high patient populations, and siloed HIV services, stigma, and a lack of inter-organizational collaboration remain persistent barriers to PrEP uptake. Promoting government collaboration and increasing financial support for community-based organizations is needed to expand PrEP access. Tailored, destigmatizing information about PrEP services needs to be diffused among both staff and patients to strengthen care quality.

Better Together: acceptability, feasibility and preliminary impact of chronic illness peer support groups for South African adolescents and young adults.

INTRODUCTION: Peer support can help navigate the isolation and psychological strain frequently experienced by youth living with chronic illness. Yet, data are lacking on the impact of providing support for youth living with mixed chronic conditions. We assessed the acceptability, feasibility and preliminary mental health impacts of a clinic-based peer support group for South African youth living with chronic illnesses, including HIV. METHODS: This mixed-methods pilot study (September 2021-June 2022) enrolled 58 young patients, ages 13-24, at an urban hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. In-depth interviews elicited the perspectives of 20 young people in relation to their participation in the Better Together programme, a recurring clinic-based peer support group for patients with mixed chronic illnesses. Self-reported resilience, attitudes towards illness, stigma and mental health were captured via established measures. T-tests and multivariate analysis of variance compared psychosocial outcomes for 20 group participants and 38 control patients, controlling for socio-demographic characteristics at enrolment. Logistic regression analyses estimated the predicted probability of a positive depression or anxiety screening given peer group participation. RESULTS: All interviewees valued being able to compare treatment regimens and disease management habits with peers living with different conditions. Adolescents living with HIV stated that understanding the hardships faced by those with other conditions helped them accept their own illness and lessened feelings of isolation. Compared to patients who did not participate in Better Together, those who attended ≥5 groups had statistically significantly higher individual-level resilience, a more positive attitude towards their illness(es), lower internalised stigma and a more positive self-concept. The probability of being screened positive for depression was 23.4 percentage points lower (95% CI: 1.5, 45.3) for Better Together participants compared to controls; the probability of a positive anxiety screening was 45.8 percentage points lower (95% CI: 18.1, 73.6). CONCLUSIONS: Recurring, clinic-based peer support groups that integrate youth living with HIV and other chronic diseases are novel. Group sustainability will depend on the commitment of experienced peer leaders and providers, routine scheduling and transportation support. A fully powered randomised trial is needed to test the optimal implementation and causal mental health effects of the Better Together model.

Testing an insurance-based monetary incentive program for exercise: RCT design and rationale.

Participation in regular physical activity (PA) has numerous health benefits; however, as few as 10% of U.S. adults meet guidelines when device-based assessments of PA are used. The present paper presents the design and rationale for an RCT examining the efficacy of an exercise incentive program currently offered by at least three major US insurance companies, in which participants must attend a YMCA fitness facility at least 50 times within 6 months to receive an incentive. In a factorial design, incentive amount ($200, $100, $0) is crossed with a comparison of the standard gain-framed incentive program and a loss-framed incentive condition in which participants are told their membership fee is being held and will be returned or forfeited depending on their fitness facility attendance. Participants (N = 330) are randomized to gain-framed $100 incentive (n = 55), gain-framed $200 incentive (n = 55), loss-framed $100 incentive (n = 55), loss-framed $200 incentive (n = 55), or control (n = 110). Each participant is enrolled in the same condition for two consecutive 6-month periods for a total of 12 months per participant. The primary outcome is number of visits to the fitness facility over each 6-month period, verified by objective swipe-card data. Secondary outcomes include total moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) over 7-day periods assessed at 3-month intervals through accelerometers (Actigraph wGT3x-BT) and self-report. Habit formation and anticipated regret are putative mediators and household income is a putative moderator of the incentive-based programs. A payer-perspective, within-trial cost-utility analysis will quantify the incremental costs per (a) quality-adjusted life year gained, (b) YMCA attendance, and (c) change in MVPA.

Clinical Gait Analysis: Characterizing Normal Gait and Pathological Deviations Due to Neurological Diseases.

This study addresses the characterization of normal gait and pathological deviations induced by neurological diseases, considering knee angular kinematics in the sagittal plane. We propose an unsupervised approach based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to identify different normal gait profiles (NGPs) corresponding to real cycles representing the overall behavior of healthy subjects, instead of considering an average reference, as done in the literature. The obtained NGPs are then used to measure the deviations of pathological gait cycles from normal gait with DTW. Hierarchical Clustering is applied to stratify deviations into clusters. Results show that three NGPs are necessary to finely characterize the heterogeneity of normal gait and accurately quantify pathological deviations. In particular, we automatically identify which lower limb is affected for Hemiplegic patients and characterize the severity of motor impairment for Paraplegic patients. Concerning Tetraplegic patients, different profiles appear in terms of impairment severity. These promising results are obtained by considering the raw description of gait signals. Indeed, we have shown that normalizing signals removes the temporal properties of signals, inducing a loss of dynamic information that is crucial for accurately measuring pathological deviations. Our methodology could be exploited to quantify the impact of therapies on gait rehabilitation.

Predictors of PrEP awareness, PrEP discussion and interest in long-acting injectable PrEP among Filipina transfeminine adults.

INTRODUCTION: Transfeminine adults are impacted by the HIV epidemic in the Philippines, and newly approved modalities of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), including long-acting injectable (LAI-PrEP), could be beneficial for this group. To inform implementation, we analysed PrEP awareness, discussion and interest in taking LAI-PrEP among Filipina transfeminine adults. METHODS: We utilized secondary data from the #ParaSaAtin survey that sampled Filipina transfeminine adults (n = 139) and conducted a series of multivariable logistic regressions with lasso selection to explore factors independently associated with PrEP outcomes, including awareness, discussion with trans friends and interest in LAI-PrEP. RESULTS: Overall, 53% of Filipina transfeminine respondents were aware of PrEP, 39% had discussed PrEP with their trans friends and 73% were interested in LAI-PrEP. PrEP awareness was associated with being non-Catholic (p = 0.017), having previously been HIV tested (p = 0.023), discussing HIV services with a provider (p<0.001) and having high HIV knowledge (p = 0.021). Discussing PrEP with friends was associated with older age (p = 0.040), having experienced healthcare discrimination due to transgender identity (p = 0.044), having HIV tested (p = 0.001) and having discussed HIV services with a provider (p < 0.001). Very interested in LAI-PrEP was associated with living in Central Visayas (p = 0.045), having discussed HIV services with a provider (p = 0.001) and having discussed HIV services with a sexual partner (p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing LAI-PrEP in the Philippines requires addressing systemic improvements across personal, interpersonal, social and structural levels in healthcare access, including efforts to create healthcare settings and environments with providers who are trained and competent in transgender health and can address the social and structural drivers of trans health inequities, including HIV and barriers to LAI-PrEP.

HIV Incidence and Death Among Orphaned and Nonorphaned Children and Adolescents Living in Family-Based Settings in Western Kenya: A Prospective Cohort Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the incidence of HIV, death, and abuse among orphaned children to nonorphaned children living in households caring for orphaned children in Western Kenya. STUDY DESIGN: A random sample was taken of 300 households caring for at least one orphaned child in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya. All orphaned and nonorphaned children in each selected household were enrolled in a prospective cohort study between 2010 and 2013. A total of 1488 children (487 double orphans, 743 single orphans, and 258 nonorphans) were followed up annually until 2019. Survival analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the association between the number of parents the child had lost (none, 1, or 2), and HIV incidence, death, combined HIV incidence or death, and incident abuse. RESULTS: Among 1488 children enrolled, 52% of participants were females, 23 were HIV positive, and the median age was 10.4 years. Over the course of the study, 16 orphaned children died and 11 acquired HIV. No deaths or incident HIV infections were observed among the nonorphaned children. Among children who were HIV negative at enrollment, loss of a parent was strongly associated with incident HIV (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.21 per parent lost, 95% CI: 1.03-4.73) and HIV or death (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.46 per parent lost, 95% CI: 1.37-4.42). There were no significant associations between orphan level and abuse. CONCLUSIONS: In similar households, orphaned children experience a higher risk of HIV and death than nonorphaned children. Both orphaned children and the families caring for them need additional support to prevent adverse health outcomes.

Incentivizing COVID-19 vaccination among racial/ethnic minority adults in the United States: $209 per dose could convince the hesitant.

BACKGROUND: More than two years into the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, it remains unclear whether financial incentives can reduce vaccine hesitancy and improve uptake among key unvaccinated populations. This study estimated the willingness of racial/ethnic minority adults in the United States to accept financial incentives for COVID-19 vaccination and the minimum amount needed to vaccinate a sufficiently high percentage of this population. METHODS: From August through September 2021, we conducted an online survey of 367 Black/African American and Hispanic patients, age ≥ 18 years, from 8 community health centers in Rhode Island. Contingent valuation questions assessed respondents' willingness-to-accept (WTA) incentives for COVID-19 vaccination using random-starting-points and iterative incentive offers of $5 to $50 per dose. Ordered logistic regression models examined associations between respondent characteristics and WTA. Predictive probabilities were modeled using both within-survey range and out-of-survey range incentive offer amounts and compared against vaccination thresholds needed to reach herd immunity. RESULTS: Less than 30% of unvaccinated survey respondents were WTA an incentive of $50/dose for vaccination. Models using out-of-survey incentive offer amounts greater than $50 suggested that 85% of respondents would agree $140/dose (95% CI: $43-$236) could convince other people to accept vaccination, while $209/dose (95% CI: -$91-$509) would be needed for 85% of respondents to accept vaccination themselves. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this analysis may inform the design of incentive schemes aiming to reduce racial/ethnic disparities in vaccine and booster uptake, which will continue to be important as new variants of SARS-CoV-2 emerge.

Interruptions to HIV Care Delivery During Pandemics and Natural Disasters: A Qualitative Study of Challenges and Opportunities From Frontline Healthcare Providers in Western Kenya.

During public health crises, people living with HIV (PLWH) may become disengaged from care. The goal of this study was to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent flooding disasters on HIV care delivery in western Kenya. We conducted ten individual in-depth interviews with HIV providers across four health facilities. We used an iterative and integrated inductive and deductive data analysis approach to generate four themes. First, increased structural interruptions created exacerbating strain on health facilities. Second, there was increased physical and psychosocial burnout among providers. Third, patient uptake of services along the HIV continuum decreased, particularly among vulnerable patients. Finally, existing community-based programs and teleconsultations could be adapted to provide differentiated HIV care. Community-centric care programs, with an emphasis on overcoming the social, economic, and structural barriers will be crucial to ensure optimal care and limit the impact of public health disruptions on HIV care globally.

Integrating community-based HIV and non-communicable disease care with microfinance groups: a feasibility study in Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The Harambee study is a cluster randomized trial in Western Kenya that tests the effect, mechanisms, and cost-effectiveness of integrating community-based HIV and non-communicable disease care within microfinance groups on chronic disease treatment outcomes. This paper documents the stages of our feasibility study conducted in preparation for the Harambee trial, which include (1) characterizing the target population and gauging recruitment capacity, (2) determining community acceptability of the integrated intervention and study procedures, and (3) identifying key implementation considerations prior to study start. METHODS: Feasibility research took place between November 2019 and February 2020 in Western Kenya. Mixed methods data collection included surveys administered to 115 leaders of 105 community-based microfinance groups, 7 in-person meetings and two workshops with stakeholders from multiple sectors of the health system, and ascertainment of field notes and geographic coordinates for group meeting locations and HIV healthcare facilities. Quantitative survey data were analyzed using STATA IC/13. Longitude and latitude coordinates were mapped to county boundaries using Esri ArcMap. Qualitative data obtained from stakeholder meetings and field notes were analyzed thematically. RESULTS: Of the 105 surveyed microfinance groups, 77 met eligibility criteria. Eligible groups had been in existence from 6 months to 18 years and had an average of 22 members. The majority (64%) of groups had at least one member who owned a smartphone. The definition of "active" membership and model of saving and lending differed across groups. Stakeholders perceived the community-based intervention and trial procedures to be acceptable given the minimal risks to participants and the potential to improve HIV treatment outcomes while facilitating care integration. Potential challenges identified by stakeholders included possible conflicts between the trial and existing community-based interventions, fear of group disintegration prior to trial end, clinicians' inability to draw blood for viral load testing in the community, and deviations from standard care protocols. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed that it was feasible to recruit the number of microfinance groups necessary to ensure that our clinical trial was sufficient powered. Elicitation of stakeholder feedback confirmed that the planned intervention was largely acceptable and was critical to identifying challenges prior to implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The original trial was prospectively registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04417127) on 4 June 2020.

Treatment Outcome Prediction Using Multi-Task Learning: Application to Botulinum Toxin in Gait Rehabilitation.

We propose a framework for optimizing personalized treatment outcomes for patients with neurological diseases. A typical consequence of such diseases is gait disorders, partially explained by command and muscle tone problems associated with spasticity. Intramuscular injection of botulinum toxin type A is a common treatment for spasticity. According to the patient's profile, offering the optimal treatment combined with the highest possible benefit-risk ratio is important. For the prediction of knee and ankle kinematics after botulinum toxin type A (BTX-A) treatment, we propose: (1) a regression strategy based on a multi-task architecture composed of LSTM models; (2) to introduce medical treatment data (MTD) for context modeling; and (3) a gating mechanism to model treatment interaction more efficiently. The proposed models were compared with and without metadata describing treatments and with serial models. Multi-task learning (MTL) achieved the lowest root-mean-squared error (RMSE) (5.60°) for traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients on knee trajectories and the lowest RMSE (3.77°) for cerebral palsy (CP) patients on ankle trajectories, with only a difference of 5.60° between actual and predicted. Overall, the best RMSE ranged from 5.24° to 6.24° for the MTL models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that MTL has been used for post-treatment gait trajectory prediction. The MTL models outperformed the serial models, particularly when introducing treatment metadata. The gating mechanism is efficient in modeling treatment interaction and improving trajectory prediction.

Conditional Economic Incentives for HIV Treatment Adherence: Aligning Adolescent Developmental Hallmarks with Behavioral Economic Theory to Improve HIV Treatment Adherence.

Adolescent-tailored antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence interventions take place within the context of unique developmental stage. Suboptimal ART adherence among adolescents living with HIV in South Africa underscores that interventions are urgently needed to improve adherence. We conducted semistructured in-depth interviews with 35 adolescents aged 10-19 years living with HIV. In addition, 14 clinicians and 35 caregivers were interviewed to provide a diverse perspective on barriers and facilitators of medication adherence for adolescents living with HIV (ALWH). Thematic coding was utilized for this analysis. Our main findings were organized by following a priori themes: (1) acceptability of conditional economic incentives (CEIs) as an adherence intervention strategy for adolescents, (2) predicted behavioral impacts, and the (3) durability of CEIs to ensure medication adherence for adolescents in the long term. Subthemes that emerged included CEIs as tool to overcome competing demands, increasing intrinsic motivation and orientation toward the future, and optimal timing of the intervention. Exposure to a CEI intervention during early adolescence (ages 10-13) may be a particularly helpful intervention as CEIs may have long-lasting effects given that habit-formation behavior is developed during early adolescence. There is little consensus on effect duration from the perspective of adolescents, clinicians, and caregivers. Future studies should continue to explore the impact of CEIs for long-term ART adherence.

Continuity of Care is Associated with Higher Appointment Adherence Among HIV Patients in Low Clinician-to-Patient Ratio Facilities in Western Kenya.

We sought to determine the relationship between continuity of care and adherence to clinic appointments among patients receiving HIV care in high vs. low clinician-to-patient (C:P) ratios facilities in western Kenya. This retrospective analysis included 12,751 patients receiving HIV care from the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) program, between February 2016-2019. We used logistic regression analysis with generalized estimating equations to estimate the relationship between continuity of care (two consecutive visits with the same provider) and adherence to clinic appointments (within 7 days of a scheduled appointment) over time. Adjusting for covariates, patients in low C:P ratio facilities who had continuity of care, were more likely to be adherent to their appointments compared to those without continuity (adjusted odds ratio = 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-1.69). Continuity in HIV care may be a factor in clinical adherence among patients in low C:P ratio facilities and should therefore be promoted.

The Impact of Different Parental Figures of Adolescents Living With HIV: An Evaluation of Family Structures, Perceived HIV Related Stigma, and Opportunities for Social Support.

Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) has changed the expected health outcomes for HIV, there are still issues related to stigma, how people living with HIV are perceived, and the availability of social support. The purpose of this study was to explore the associations between family structure and psychosocial wellbeing reflected by perceived HIV stigma and social support among adolescents living with HIV in Kumasi, Ghana. This article used baseline data from two mixed methods studies that evaluated the safety and preliminary efficacy of group-based support programs for ART adherence improvement among adolescents living in Kumasi, Ghana (N = 70, aged 12-18 years). A multivariate linear regression analysis was employed to examine the associations between family structure and the outcomes of stigma and social support. The main variables for family structure were single mothers and female caregivers. We found that single motherhood was a significant determinant of stigma. When compared to other categories of caregiver types, adolescents being raised by their single mothers was associated with a 0.259 decrease in the mean internal HIV stigma score (p = 0.029). Also, for female adolescents, being raised by a female guardian (e.g., mother, aunt, grandmother, and sister) was associated with a 20.92 point increase in the overall support index (p = 0.005). This study shows that the type of parent or guardian, and their gender, influences the perceived stigma and available social support among adolescents living with HIV in Ghana. Vulnerable subgroups of adolescents living with HIV, particularly those raised up by male caregivers, should be provided with additional support.

Impacts of community-based care program on health care utilization and cost.

OBJECTIVES: A variety of care coordination and delivery models have been used to address the social and medical needs of high-need, high-cost patient populations. However, the evidence on the effectiveness of such models is far from clear. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the Community Health Team (CHT) program, a community-based care management program in Rhode Island, had impacts on health care utilization and cost. STUDY DESIGN: We used data from 2014 to 2018 to evaluate the effects of the CHT program on health care utilization and cost. Our analytical sample consisted of a total of 12,830 patients, with 2282 in the intervention group and 10,548 in the matched comparison group. METHODS: We used a combination of propensity score-matched difference-in-differences framework and generalized linear models. RESULTS: The program led to an overall decrease in hospitalizations (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.89; P = .028) and inpatient costs (IRR, 0.79; P = .024). This translates into a reduction of 7 hospitalizations per 1000 people per month and a reduction of inpatient cost of $289 per person per month. Impacts varied considerably across subgroups. For patients with 1 to 2 encounters with the program, there was a significant decrease in emergency department visits, hospitalizations, inpatient cost, outpatient cost, professional cost, and total cost. Although no significant impacts were observed for patients with 3 to 5 encounters with the program, patients with more than 6 encounters with the program saw an increase in pharmacy cost and total cost. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for a tailored approach to addressing patients' needs in primary care.

Impact of an Enhanced Patient Care Intervention on Viral Suppression Among Patients Living With HIV in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Effective patient-centered interventions are needed to promote patient engagement in HIV care. We assessed the impact of a patient-centered intervention referred to as enhanced patient care (EPC) on viral suppression among unsuppressed patients living with HIV in Kenya. SETTING: Two rural HIV clinics within the Academic Model Providing Access to Health care. METHODS: This was a 6-month pilot randomized control trial. The EPC intervention incorporated continuity of clinician-patient relationships, enhanced treatment dialog, and improved patients' clinic appointment scheduling. Provider-patient communication training was offered to all clinicians in the intervention site. We targeted 360 virally unsuppressed patients: (1) 240 in the intervention site with 120 randomly assigned to provider-patient communication (PPC) training + EPC and 120 to PPC training + standard of care (SOC) and (2) 120 in the control site receiving SOC. Logistic regression analysis was applied using R (version 3.6.3). RESULTS: A total of 328 patients were enrolled: 110 (92%) PPC training + EPC, 110 (92%) PPC training + SOC, and 108 (90%) SOC. Participants' mean age at baseline was 48 years (SD: 12.05 years). Viral suppression 6 months postintervention was 84.4% among those in PPC training + EPC, 83.7% in PPC training + SOC, and 64.4% in SOC ( P ≤ 0.001). Compared with participants in PPC training + EPC, those in SOC had lower odds of being virally suppressed 6 months postintervention (odds ratio = 0.36, 95% confidence interval: 0.18 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: PPC training may have had the greatest impact on patient viral suppression. Hence, adequate training and effective PPC implementation strategies are needed.

Multivariable prediction models for health care spending using machine learning: a protocol of a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: With rising cost pressures on health care systems, machine-learning (ML)-based algorithms are increasingly used to predict health care costs. Despite their potential advantages, the successful implementation of these methods could be undermined by biases introduced in the design, conduct, or analysis of studies seeking to develop and/or validate ML models. The utility of such models may also be negatively affected by poor reporting of these studies. In this systematic review, we aim to evaluate the reporting quality, methodological characteristics, and risk of bias of ML-based prediction models for individual-level health care spending. METHODS: We will systematically search PubMed and Embase to identify studies developing, updating, or validating ML-based models to predict an individual's health care spending for any medical condition, over any time period, and in any setting. We will exclude prediction models of aggregate-level health care spending, models used to infer causality, models using radiomics or speech parameters, models of non-clinically validated predictors (e.g., genomics), and cost-effectiveness analyses without predicting individual-level health care spending. We will extract data based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modeling Studies (CHARMS), previously published research, and relevant recommendations. We will assess the adherence of ML-based studies to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement and examine the inclusion of transparency and reproducibility indicators (e.g. statements on data sharing). To assess the risk of bias, we will apply the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Findings will be stratified by study design, ML methods used, population characteristics, and medical field. DISCUSSION: Our systematic review will appraise the quality, reporting, and risk of bias of ML-based models for individualized health care cost prediction. This review will provide an overview of the available models and give insights into the strengths and limitations of using ML methods for the prediction of health spending.